Key Takeaways
- Every HDB flat sits on a 99-year lease that counts down from completion, and its value is intrinsically tied to the remaining lease rather than to when you bought it.
- Bala's Curve values a fresh 99-year lease at about 96% of freehold, roughly 80% at 60 years remaining, and about 60% at 30 years remaining, with depreciation accelerating in the final decades.
- CPF savings can be used for an HDB flat only when the remaining lease is at least 20 years, and full CPF use requires the lease to cover the youngest buyer to age 95, otherwise it is pro-rated.
- Bank and HDB loan tenures are capped by the remaining lease, so older flats attract smaller loans, higher cash outlays and a shrinking buyer pool.
- Selling while the remaining lease is comfortably above 60 years generally preserves demand and proceeds, since financing friction intensifies below that mark.
Expert takeaway: An HDB flat is a depreciating leasehold asset, and its resale value in 2026 is driven less by renovation or address than by one number: the remaining lease. Understanding Bala's Curve and the CPF and loan cliffs that sit behind it is the single most important step before you buy or sell an ageing flat.
Why HDB Lease Decay Matters More Than Buyers Realise
Ask most owners what their flat is worth and they will point to recent transactions in the block. Ask them about their remaining lease and you often get a blank look. Yet that figure quietly governs how much a future buyer can borrow, how much CPF they can tap, and ultimately what they are willing to pay. This is the heart of HDB lease decay in 2026, and it is why the concept of Bala's Curve deserves a place in every flat owner's vocabulary.
Every HDB flat in Singapore is sold on a 99-year lease. Crucially, the lease counts down from the day the flat is built, not from the day you buy it. That means a flat that reached completion in 1985 already has only around 58 years of lease left in 2026, even if it changed hands last year. Unlike a freehold home, an HDB flat is a depreciating asset whose value is intrinsically tied to how many years remain, and when the 99-year lease finally expires the flat reverts to the state with no compensation to the owner.
What Bala's Curve Actually Says About Leasehold Value
Bala's Curve, also called Bala's Table, is a leasehold relativity table used by the Singapore Land Authority to express the value of leasehold land as a percentage of its freehold equivalent. It is named after a Land Office official from the colonial era, and by law it underpins how the state values leasehold land for lease renewals, differential premiums and development charges.
The defining feature of the curve is that it is non-linear. Value does not fall by a neat 1/99 each year. Instead the early decades are gentle and the final decades are steep. The commonly cited reference points look like this:
| Remaining Lease | Approx. Value (as % of freehold) |
|---|---|
| 99 years (fresh lease) | ~96% |
| 60 years | ~80% |
| 50 years | ~75% |
| 30 years | ~60% |
| 5 years | ~17% |
These figures are drawn from the SLA leasehold value table, made public around July 2000. A useful illustration: a 99-year plot that would be worth S$50 million as freehold is valued at roughly S$40 million with 60 years left, so a developer topping the lease back up to 99 years would pay the difference to restore it toward full value. For homeowners, the same logic explains why the decline accelerates sharply once the remaining lease drops below 60 years. The steepest depreciation lands in the final 30 years, when value can fall from roughly 60% at 30 years remaining toward the high teens near expiry.
One important caveat: Bala's Curve is a state valuation guideline for land, not a live market price for your specific unit. Real resale prices reflect willing-buyer, willing-seller dynamics, renovation, floor level and estate desirability. But the curve explains the direction and shape of decay that no location can fully escape.
The CPF and Loan Cliffs That Drive Resale Demand
Bala's Curve describes the theory. The reason lease decay bites in practice is that government financing rules narrow the buyer pool as the lease shortens. Two mechanisms matter most.
CPF usage and the age-95 rule
CPF savings can be used to buy an HDB flat only when the remaining lease is at least 20 years. For full CPF use up to the valuation limit, the remaining lease at purchase must cover the youngest buyer to at least age 95. Where the lease falls short of that age-95 threshold, CPF usage is pro-rated, and below 20 years remaining no CPF Ordinary Account savings can be used at all.
The CPF Board explains that for a property whose lease cannot cover the youngest buyer to 95, owners may use OA savings only up to a pro-rated percentage of the lower of the purchase or valuation price, a cap designed to protect retirement adequacy. In plain terms, a 40-year-old eyeing a flat with 55 years left may find CPF capped well below the full valuation, forcing the shortfall into cash and shrinking the pool of buyers who can afford it. Our deeper explainer on CPF rules for HDB buyers in 2026 walks through how these limits interact with accrued interest.
Loan-to-value and loan tenure limits
Under MAS loan-to-value and loan tenure rules, the standard 75% LTV for a bank loan on an HDB flat applies only when the remaining lease is at least 30 years and covers the youngest buyer to age 95. Where the lease does not reach age 95, the maximum LTV is pro-rated downward. Loan tenure is also capped by the remaining lease, so an older flat supports only a short loan, which lifts monthly instalments and further limits how much an average household can borrow. You can see how these limits combine in our guide to how TDSR and LTV affect your borrowing power, and estimate figures with our affordability calculator.
By the time a flat approaches 30 years remaining, financing is effectively a cash-only affair. Banks become reluctant to lend, CPF use is heavily restricted, and demand narrows to cash-rich downsizers and speculative buyers. That is exactly the zone where Bala's Curve steepens most aggressively.
Opportunities and Risks for Owners in 2026
Lease decay is not automatically bad news. Older flats in mature estates near MRT lines can still command strong prices while the lease sits comfortably above 60 years, and they often deliver larger floor plates than newer BTO stock. For buyers who plan to live in the flat for the long term and are young enough for the lease to cover them to age 95, an older flat can offer genuine value.
The risks, however, must not be glossed over:
- Accelerating depreciation. Once past the 60-year mark, financing friction compounds and prices tend to soften faster.
- SERS is not a plan. The Selective En Bloc Redevelopment Scheme has selected only a small fraction of flats since it began, so it should never be assumed as an exit.
- Retirement exposure. With a large share of household net worth locked in the flat, a shortening lease directly erodes retirement wealth.
- Narrower buyer pool at resale. Even buyers who can personally manage the CPF pro-ration factor in the smaller future exit market when deciding what to offer.
For elderly owners of smaller flats, the HDB Lease Buyback Scheme offers one route to unlock value: owners aged 65 and above can sell the tail-end of the lease to HDB while retaining enough years to keep living there, with proceeds channelled into retirement income. If you have recently crossed your minimum occupation period, our note on what to do when your HDB reaches MOP is a sensible starting point, and upgraders weighing a move should read our guide on upgrading from HDB to condo without paying ABSD.
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WhatsApp: Free Owner ReviewUpgrade Without ABSD GuideFrequently Asked Questions
At what remaining lease does an HDB flat start losing value quickly?
Value tends to hold reasonably well above roughly 60 years remaining. Below that, CPF pro-ration and shorter loan tenures begin to narrow the buyer pool, and on Bala's Curve the decline accelerates most sharply in the final 30 years of the lease.
Can I still use CPF to buy an older HDB flat?
Yes, provided the remaining lease is at least 20 years. Full CPF use requires the lease to cover the youngest buyer to age 95; if it falls short, CPF usage is pro-rated, and below 20 years remaining no CPF Ordinary Account savings can be used. Always confirm your exact limit using the CPF housing usage calculator before committing.
Is Bala's Curve the same as my flat's market price?
No. Bala's Curve is the state's leasehold valuation guideline for land, used for lease renewals and premiums. Actual resale prices depend on open-market demand, location, floor level and condition, so your flat can trade above or below the curve's implied percentage.
Should I sell my ageing flat now or wait?
As a general rule, selling while the remaining lease sits well above 60 years preserves the widest buyer pool and better proceeds. The right timing still depends on your age, retirement needs and next-home plans, which is why a personalised review beats any blanket rule.
What happens when the 99-year lease finally runs out?
The flat and land revert to the state with no compensation to the owner, and the flat is effectively worth nothing at expiry. This is why planning an exit or a scheme such as Lease Buyback well before the lease runs down is important.
Lease decay is one of the few property forces you can plan around with real precision, because the maths behind it is transparent and the CPF and loan rules are published by the CPF Board and MAS. The hard part is applying it to your flat, your age and your retirement timeline. If you own an ageing flat and want a clear, independent read on where you sit on the curve and what your realistic options are, reach out to the team at PropertyNet.SG for a personalised, no-pressure consultation. We will help you weigh the numbers calmly so your next move protects both your home and your long-term wealth.