For the first time in nearly seven years, HDB resale prices are heading in a new direction. While HDB's Resale Price Index fell 0.1% in Q1 2026, marking the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019, the million-dollar flat phenomenon continues to accelerate with unprecedented momentum.
A record 412 HDB resale flats changed hands at S$1 million or more in Q1 2026, representing a stark contrast to the broader market's cooling trend. This dual narrative—softening overall prices alongside soaring premium transactions—reveals crucial insights for both first-time buyers and upgraders navigating Singapore's unique public housing market.
Market Data Shows Clear Cooling in Overall Resale Activity
Singapore's public housing market recorded 6,285 resale flat transactions in Q1 2026, which represents a 4.6% decrease compared to the 6,590 transactions in Q1 2025. While quarterly activity increased 19.6% from Q4 2025, analysts attribute this seasonal uptick to typical first-quarter momentum rather than underlying demand strength.
With 13,480 HDB flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026—nearly double 2025's 6,970—buyers can expect more resale choices, while the expanding pipeline is expected to further ease resale price growth. This supply influx is already materialising: HDB resale prices rose just 2.9% in 2025, significantly lower than 2024's 9.7% increase.
| Period | Price Index | Quarterly Change | Transactions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 203.4 | -0.1% | 6,285 |
| Q4 2025 | 203.6 | Flat | 5,256 |
| Q1 2025 | N/A | N/A | 6,590 |
Million-Dollar Flat Market Reaches New Heights
Despite the broader cooling, the 412 million-dollar transactions in Q1 2026 represented a 17.4% increase quarter-on-quarter. These premium deals comprised 190 four-room flats, 143 five-room flats, 78 executive flats, and one multi-generation flat.
The geographic concentration remains predictable: median resale prices for five-room flats reached S$1.1 million in Toa Payoh, S$1.09 million in Ang Mo Kio, and S$1.085 million in Bukit Merah, with the next-highest being S$970,000 in Bishan and S$930,500 in Kallang/Whampoa. Four-room flats hit the million-dollar mark in Queenstown (S$1.038 million) and Toa Payoh (S$1 million), with Bukit Merah following at S$938,000 and Kallang/Whampoa at S$929,000.
The quarter's most expensive transaction was a five-room premium loft apartment at SkyTerrace @ Dawson that sold for S$1.7 million, measuring 1,313 sq ft with about 89 years remaining lease—setting a new benchmark for the entire HDB resale market.
Supply Wave: 13,480 Flats Reaching MOP Creates Opportunities
The 2026 MOP wave represents a significant market shift. At least 63 deals, or 15% of million-dollar HDB transactions in Q1 2026, involved units that recently obtained their MOP, with remaining leases of 94 years or more, with the bulk concentrated in newer projects such as Alkaff Courtview and Ang Mo Kio Court.
For buyers, this creates a practical middle ground: families who want modern layouts but don't want to wait three to five years for a Build-To-Order (BTO) flat can access resale homes reaching MOP, allowing them to move in sooner while still enjoying longer remaining leases.
The price dynamics are already shifting. On average, million-dollar flats across Singapore fetched about S$1.151 million in Q1 2026, which is 1.2% lower than the previous quarter's S$1.165 million, suggesting even premium segments are feeling supply pressure.
Policy Framework Remains Stable in 2026
Unlike previous years marked by frequent cooling measure adjustments, 2026's policy environment remains relatively stable. HDB maintains income ceilings of S$14,000 monthly for families and S$21,000 for multi-generation households applying for BTO and most new flats.
Housing grants continue to provide substantial support: the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (EHG) offers up to S$80,000 for families and S$40,000 for singles on resale flats, while the Proximity Housing Grant (PHG) provides up to S$30,000 for those living near parents. The maximum amount of HDB resale grants buyers can receive is S$230,000 when multiple grants are stacked.
Opportunities vs Risks: A Balanced View for 2026
Opportunities for Buyers:
• Expanding supply from MOP flats reduces competition and COV premiums
• Most market analysts forecast full-year 2026 HDB resale price growth could range from 0.5% to 5%, with the broader market likely to track the lower end of those forecasts
• Enhanced grant stacking up to S$230,000 makes resale purchases more accessible
• From a supply standpoint and with price momentum cooling, it's shaping up to be one of the more buyer-friendly phases in recent years
Risks to Consider:
• The broader HDB resale market is heading into a year of moderated price growth, but more supply generally means more options and a slower pace of islandwide price increases
• Rare flat types—especially executive maisonettes, big multi-gen units, and penthouse-style DBSS layouts—will likely continue setting strong prices, as buyers who value these configurations often have few alternatives
• Economic uncertainties could affect buyer sentiment and financing conditions
For those eyeing premium locations or rare flat types, prices may remain resilient. The sustained growth in million-dollar transactions is real, but concentrated in a handful of mature estates rather than spread across the market.
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Are million-dollar HDB flats here to stay in 2026?
Yes, the number of million-dollar transactions is expected to inch higher in 2026. Their share will remain small compared to the wider market, but these flats tap into a specific buyer segment willing to pay a premium for space, convenience, and limited-supply layouts.
How much can I get in HDB housing grants for 2026?
The maximum amount of HDB resale grants you can receive is S$230,000 by combining the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant, Family Grant, and Proximity Housing Grant. The EHG offers up to S$80,000 for families and S$40,000 for singles, subject to income ceilings and eligibility criteria.
What income ceiling applies for HDB eligibility in 2026?
HDB maintains income ceilings of S$14,000 monthly for families and S$21,000 for multi-generation households applying for BTO and most new flats. For grants, different schemes have varying income limits, with some grants available up to S$9,000 household income.
Is 2026 a good time to buy HDB resale?
From a supply standpoint and with price momentum cooling, it's shaping up to be one of the more buyer-friendly phases in recent years. The influx of MOP flats provides more choice, while stabilising prices offer clearer budgeting for long-term owner-occupiers.
Which areas still command million-dollar prices?
Five-room flats reached S$1.1 million median in Toa Payoh, S$1.09 million in Ang Mo Kio, and S$1.085 million in Bukit Merah, while four-room flats hit the million-dollar mark in Queenstown and Toa Payoh. These mature estates continue to attract premium pricing due to location and connectivity advantages.
The 2026 HDB resale market presents a unique window of opportunity for informed buyers. With expanding supply creating more choice and government grants providing substantial support up to S$230,000 through our affordability calculator, buyers can approach the market with greater confidence. Whether you're a first-timer exploring options through our buyer auto-profiler or an upgrader using our stamp duty calculator to understand total costs, the current environment rewards thorough preparation and strategic timing. For personalised guidance on navigating HDB grants, MOP opportunities, or finding the right balance between location and budget in today's evolving market, connect with PropertyNet.SG's independent advisory team to make your next property decision with clarity and confidence.