HDB Resale Market Mid-Year 2026 Report: Transaction Volume, Cash-Over-Valuation and Hotspot Towns

Expert takeaway: The HDB resale market in mid-year 2026 is cooling at the headline level while the premium segment keeps setting records, a split that rewards disciplined buyers and realistic sellers far more than anyone chasing momentum.

Singapore's HDB resale market entered 2026 with a quiet but historically significant shift. After nearly seven years of uninterrupted price growth, the index finally edged lower. Yet transaction activity stayed busy and the million-dollar flat phenomenon broke another record. This mid-year 2026 report unpacks what the official numbers actually say about transaction volume, cash-over-valuation pressure, and where the hotspot towns sit today.

What the latest HDB and MAS data confirms

The headline number is the one most buyers and sellers watch first. According to HDB, the Resale Price Index told a clear story this quarter. URA jointly releases this data, and the signal is consistent across analysts.

The picture in early 2026 was genuinely two-sided. ERA noted that the index moderated for the first time in nearly seven years, even as transaction counts rebounded from the previous quarter.

The dip was small, but its symbolism is large. An RPI of 203.4 does not mean the average flat costs S$203,400. It means that, on a quality-adjusted basis, HDB resale prices have more than doubled since 2012. The index measures price change, not absolute price levels.

The two headline movements are not contradictory. Rising volume alongside a modestly lower index indicates demand remains healthy while buyers exercise greater price discipline, with fewer sellers commanding the premiums that defined 2022 to 2024.

Why the HDB resale market cooled without crashing

The single biggest structural driver this year is supply. The number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period is the engine behind the moderation.

The math is striking. An estimated 13,480 HDB flats complete their five-year MOP in 2026, almost double the 6,973 in 2025, substantially increasing the pool of units available for resale. Crucially for buyers, around 69.3% of these flats exiting MOP sit in popular towns such as Punggol, Tampines, Toa Payoh and Queenstown. These newly-MOP flats are not subject to the stricter resale restrictions tied to the newer Plus and Prime classifications, which makes them more flexible for resale buyers.

On the demand side, the alternatives are stronger than before. A quieter BTO exercise in February 2026 attracted 15,044 applicants for 4,692 flats, a subdued response that nudged some buyers toward resale. At the same time, HDB has maintained its supply of 19,600 BTO flats across three sales exercises this year, including more than 4,000 Shorter Waiting Time flats with wait times of under three years. More choice in the primary market relieves pressure on resale.

Financing conditions have also eased relative to the 2022 peak. Two-year fixed packages have been available at around 1.4% to 1.5% per annum, well below the 4% plus rates seen in late 2022. Lower borrowing costs support affordability, but they have not reignited a frenzy because supply is simply more abundant. If you are weighing your loan options, our breakdown of how TDSR and LTV limits affect your borrowing is a useful starting point, and you can confirm the official rules on the MAS LTV page and the MAS MSR and TDSR page.

Cash-over-valuation: less leverage for sellers

Cash-over-valuation, or COV, is the cash a buyer pays above a flat's official valuation. In a flattening market with rising listings, sellers have less leeway to insist on aggressive COV. The shift this year is one of negotiating power, not collapse.

A market with more available units means buyers who understand fair pricing can negotiate harder. The smart reading pairs price movement with transaction volume. A slower index with steady volume suggests a market that is still active, just less heated. For buyers, that changes the viewing strategy: instead of treating every listing as urgent, compare recent transactions in the same town, flat type and remaining lease band.

Sellers should adjust expectations accordingly. Buyers are more informed than before, and valuation gaps can slow a deal quickly. Pricing realistically against genuine comparables matters more in 2026 than in any year since the pandemic boom. Our walkthrough on calculating your HDB sales proceeds helps both sides set realistic numbers, and HDB's own selling eligibility page covers the procedural groundwork. If your flat has just crossed its MOP, our guide on what to do when your HDB reaches MOP is worth reading before you list.

Hotspot towns: where the million-dollar flats cluster

The premium segment moved in the opposite direction to the headline. A record 412 HDB resale flats changed hands at S$1 million or more in Q1 2026, comprising 190 four-room flats, 143 five-room flats, 78 executive flats and one multi-generation flat. Yet these deals still made up a small share, with ERA noting million-dollar transactions accounted for only about 6.9% of all resale activity in the quarter.

Geographically, the concentration is predictable. These higher-value transactions remained concentrated in mature estates, which accounted for roughly 90.8% of all million-dollar deals, with Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Queenstown and Ang Mo Kio leading. The table below shows where median five-room and four-room prices are highest.

The MOP wave is feeding this top end directly. At least 63 deals, or 15% of million-dollar HDB transactions in the quarter, involved units that recently obtained their MOP with remaining leases of 94 years or more, concentrated in newer projects such as Alkaff Courtview and Ang Mo Kio Court. The most expensive resale flat in the quarter was a five-room premium loft at SkyTerrace @ Dawson that sold for S$1.7 million, measuring 1,313 sq ft with about 89 years of lease remaining, setting a new benchmark across all flat types.

Even within the premium segment, supply is biting. On average, million-dollar flats fetched about S$1.151 million in Q1 2026, which is 1.2% lower than the previous quarter's S$1.165 million. The scarcity at the top is real, but it is not immune to pressure.

Opportunities and risks for the second half of 2026

For buyers, the opportunity is wider choice and improved negotiating room. With the largest MOP wave in over a decade releasing younger, longer-lease flats into popular towns, competition is less frantic than in recent years. Lower mortgage rates further improve affordability for those who have prepared their financing.

• Opportunity: Newer MOP flats offer modern layouts and long leases without the three-to-five-year wait of a BTO, and they avoid Plus and Prime resale restrictions.
• Opportunity: Softer COV expectations mean disciplined buyers can transact closer to valuation in many estates.
• Risk: Supply is not a magic lever. Rare and well-located flats, such as executive maisonettes and large units near MRT stations, continue to command premiums regardless of broader supply. A flat-lining index does not mean a flat in Bishan or Queenstown will get cheaper.
• Risk: At seven-figure price points, the HDB-versus-private calculus shifts. Buyers should weigh the MOP, the inability to rent out the whole unit during MOP, and the finite lease before committing.
• Risk: Macroeconomic uncertainty could push interest rates back up, changing affordability quickly.

Most analysts expect moderation rather than reversal. Forecasts for full-year 2026 HDB resale price growth cluster in the 2% to 4% band, with ERA at the more optimistic 2% to 5% end and projecting around 26,000 to 27,000 transactions for the year. If you are considering moving up to private property, our guide on how to upgrade from HDB to condo without paying ABSD and our HDB upgraders' guide to executive condos walk through the sequencing. You can also confirm stamp duty obligations on the IRAS BSD page and the IRAS ABSD page, and check what your CPF can cover on the CPF home ownership page.

The mid-year 2026 picture is nuanced rather than simple, and the right move depends entirely on your town, flat type, lease, and timeline. Whether you are a seller weighing how to price against the new supply, an upgrader timing a move to private property, or a first-timer deciding between resale and BTO, a personalised read of your specific situation beats any headline number. Reach out to the team at PropertyNet.SG for independent, data-grounded advice tailored to your goals before you make your next decision.