Key Takeaways
- Private residential prices rose only 0.5% in Q2 2026, the weakest quarterly growth in seven quarters, according to URA flash estimates.
- HDB resale prices fell 0.3% in Q2 2026, extending the 0.1% Q1 decline into the first back-to-back quarterly drop in nearly seven years.
- Private transaction volume held steady at around 5,420 units in Q2 2026, showing buyers are still active but far more price-selective.
- Around 490 HDB flats sold for at least S$1 million in Q2 2026, a record 7.8% of all resale transactions despite the softer overall index.
- With 3-month compounded SORA hovering near 1.0% to 1.1% and fixed rates from about 1.40%, financing costs remain near cyclical lows for buyers in mid-2026.
Singapore's property market is entering its most balanced phase in years. Private home prices are still rising but at their slowest pace in seven quarters, while HDB resale prices have now fallen for two consecutive quarters, handing buyers a rare moment of choice and leverage.
The mid-year data is in, and the story of the Singapore property market in 2026 is one of divergence and moderation rather than any dramatic correction. Private and public housing are moving in different directions, transaction volumes are holding up even as price growth cools, and the million-dollar flat phenomenon refuses to fade. For anyone weighing a purchase, sale or upgrade in the second half of the year, the numbers reward patience and punish overpaying.
What the URA and HDB Q2 2026 Flash Estimates Show
According to the latest URA flash estimates, the Urban Redevelopment Authority reported that private residential property prices rose by just 0.5% in Q2 2026. That is the softest quarterly growth in seven quarters and a clear step down from the momentum of 2025.
Underneath the headline, the segments behaved very differently. Landed home prices climbed 2.6% in Q2 2026, reversing a 0.4% decline the previous quarter and pushing the landed index to a fresh record high, a move observers link to the limited supply of landed housing in Singapore. Non-landed prices, which cover the bulk of condominium demand across the Core Central, Rest of Central and Outside Central Regions, grew far more gently.
The public housing picture cooled more visibly. HDB's flash estimate data showed the Resale Price Index fell 0.3% in Q2 2026, following the 0.1% decline recorded in Q1. That makes this the first time in nearly seven years that HDB resale prices have declined across two consecutive quarters.
| Indicator | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Private residential price change (QoQ) | +0.9% | +0.5% |
| HDB Resale Price Index change (QoQ) | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| Private transactions (approx.) | 5,413 units | 5,420 units |
| HDB resale transactions | ~6,285 units | 6,268 units |
Why the Singapore Property Market Is Cooling in an Orderly Way
The moderation is being driven by supply and choice rather than any collapse in demand. On the public housing side, the shift is largely supply-led, with more flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period and an expanding BTO pipeline giving buyers more options. Around 13,500 flats are expected to reach MOP in 2026, up from roughly 8,000 in 2025, which steadily feeds fresh resale listings into the market.
The upcoming supply calendar reinforces this. The October BTO exercise is set to introduce close to 8,000 new flats, and that pipeline gives households who can wait a credible alternative to chasing resale prices upward. If your own flat is approaching that milestone, our guide on the three things to do when your HDB reaches MOP is a useful starting point.
On the private side, activity has stayed resilient even as prices flattened. URA's flash estimates indicate around 5,420 private home sales in Q2 2026, virtually unchanged from the 5,413 transactions in Q1 and roughly 4.5% higher than the same period last year. The stable volume suggests buyers have not stepped away. Instead, purchasing decisions have become more selective, with greater attention paid to pricing, location and long-term value.
The Million-Dollar HDB Flat Story Keeps Growing
Even as the overall resale index dipped, the top end of the HDB market held firm. Around 490 million-dollar HDB flats changed hands in Q2 2026, accounting for 7.8% of all resale transactions, the highest proportion on record. Interestingly, the average price of these flats edged down slightly to around S$1.147 million, and an increasing share of them took place in non-mature estates.
That last detail matters. It suggests buyers are chasing newer, well-located flats rather than only traditional prime addresses, a shift shaped by affordability pressures. For upgraders trying to read this bifurcated market, understanding how to calculate your HDB sales proceeds before committing to a purchase is essential, because a strong sale price does not automatically translate into strong net cash after loan redemption and CPF refunds.
Financing Conditions Remain a Tailwind for Buyers
The one factor firmly on the buyer's side in mid-2026 is the cost of money. Mortgage rates sit near three-year lows. The 3-month compounded SORA has eased to roughly 1.0% to 1.1%, with fixed packages available from about 1.40%, well below the 3.00%-plus levels that defined 2023 and early 2024.
| Financing benchmark | Mid-2026 level | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-month compounded SORA | ~1.0% to 1.1% | |
| Typical 2-year fixed package (from) | ~1.40% | |
| Floating package (from) | ~1.05% |
Cheaper financing lowers monthly instalments and improves affordability under the borrowing rules. That said, the rules themselves have not moved. Buyers still need to work within the loan-to-value ceilings and debt servicing frameworks set by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the TDSR and MSR limits continue to cap how much you can borrow regardless of how low rates fall. Our explainer on how TDSR and LTV affect your purchase power breaks down the mechanics in plain terms.
Opportunities and Risks in the Second Half of 2026
A balanced market cuts both ways, and no honest analysis skips the risks. Here is how the two sides stack up.
Opportunities:
- More negotiating room in HDB resale, particularly on valuation gaps, as supply rises and price expectations temper.
- Near-cyclical-low financing costs that stretch affordability for both owner-occupiers and upgraders.
- A wider range of choices as the October BTO exercise and a growing private launch pipeline expand options in H2 2026.
- Resilient value at the top end, with well-located flats and landed homes still commanding firm demand.
Risks:
- Overpaying in a flat market. With prices barely moving, the margin for buyer error on entry price has shrunk considerably.
- The widening HDB-to-private price gap in the Outside Central Region, which can make the upgrader leap harder to fund. If you are planning that move, our guide to upgrading from HDB to condo without paying ABSD is worth reading first.
- External shocks. Global energy prices, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty remain live downside risks that could feed into rates or sentiment.
- Rate reversal risk. Analysts see SORA near its floor, so floating-rate borrowers should be prepared for rates to rise later in a holding period.
Any second-property buyer should also factor in stamp duty carefully. The IRAS Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty and Buyer's Stamp Duty schedules can materially change your entry cost, and our overview of how stamp duty works ties the pieces together.
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How much did private property prices rise in Q2 2026?
URA flash estimates show private residential prices rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, the weakest pace in seven quarters. Landed prices jumped 2.6% to a record high, while non-landed growth was more subdued.
Are HDB resale prices actually falling in 2026?
Yes, modestly. HDB flash estimates show the Resale Price Index fell 0.3% in Q2 2026, following a 0.1% dip in Q1. This is the first back-to-back quarterly decline in nearly seven years, driven largely by rising MOP and BTO supply rather than collapsing demand.
Is this a good time to buy property in Singapore?
Conditions favour prepared, price-disciplined buyers. Financing costs are near three-year lows and there is more choice and negotiating room, especially in HDB resale. The main risk is overpaying in a flat market, so a realistic valuation and budget matter more than ever.
Why are million-dollar HDB flats still setting records if prices are falling?
The market is bifurcated. Around 490 flats sold for at least S$1 million in Q2 2026, a record 7.8% of transactions, as buyers pay premiums for newly MOP-ed, well-located units even as the broader index softens.
What are mortgage rates in Singapore right now?
In mid-2026, 3-month compounded SORA sits around 1.0% to 1.1%, with fixed packages from roughly 1.40% and floating packages from about 1.05%, all near cyclical lows. Your borrowing limit still depends on TDSR, MSR and LTV rules regardless of the rate.
The mid-2026 data confirms a market that is cooling in an orderly, buyer-aware way rather than breaking. That environment rewards clear-eyed planning: knowing your true budget, your valuation exposure, and how the financing rules apply to your specific situation. If you are weighing a purchase, a sale or an HDB-to-private upgrade in the second half of the year and want an independent read on the numbers behind your decision, reach out to the team at PropertyNet.SG for a personalised, no-pressure discussion tailored to your goals.