Singapore Ultra-Luxury Market Splits in 2026: $10M+ Condos Rebound as GCB Land Rates Swing

Expert takeaway: Singapore's top-end market is telling two stories at once in 2026. High-rise trophy condos priced at $10 million and above have climbed to a 15-quarter high, while Good Class Bungalow land rates whipsawed from a four-year low in the first quarter to a fresh 2026 high in the second, a sign that the apex of the market is thin, illiquid and driven by a handful of deals.

The very top of the Singapore ultra-luxury property market in 2026 has quietly turned a corner, but not in a straight line. After a subdued couple of years following the April 2023 stamp duty overhaul, the Core Central Region (CCR) opened the year with renewed activity in trophy apartments, even as the landed segment moved to its own erratic rhythm. Reading why these two markets diverged is the key to understanding where high-net-worth capital is actually flowing.

What is happening at the top of the market

The condo numbers are unambiguous. According to industry analysis of URA REALIS caveat data, ultra-luxury non-landed transactions priced at $10 million and above rose from 14 units in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 16 in the first quarter of 2026, then to 23 in the second quarter, a 15-quarter high. Of those 23 second-quarter deals, six were new sales and 17 were resale transactions, with the most expensive being a unit at Nassim Park Residences that changed hands for roughly $22.95 million.

Zooming out to the half-year picture, CCR condo units transacting at $10 million or more rose to 40 in the first half of 2026, up from 31 in the same period a year earlier. More broadly, CCR residential properties selling for at least $5 million reached 353 units in the first half, the highest first-half volume in four years and a jump of nearly a quarter year on year. That happened even as the wider private market, excluding executive condos, softened. You can read our full breakdown in the Singapore property market mid-2026 review.

Source: Industry analysis of URA REALIS caveat data, excluding bulk transactions. Figures should be verified against the latest data at URA REALIS.

Why local buyers are now driving trophy condos

The single most important shift behind the condo rebound is who is buying. In April 2023, the government imposed a 60% Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty on foreigners purchasing residential property in Singapore. That measure effectively priced out much of the international demand that once anchored the CCR, and the segment stalled through 2024.

What replaced it was domestic wealth. Singaporean buyers rose from 13.3% of ultra-luxury condo purchases in 2021 to 30.5% in 2025, meaning the top of the market is now materially more local than it was at the last peak. This matters for durability. Demand rooted in citizens and permanent residents relocating within Singapore is less exposed to the swings in cross-border capital that historically made the luxury segment volatile. For a full picture of how the duty framework applies across buyer profiles, see our guide to the Singapore cooling measures in 2026 and the definitive explainer on buyer's stamp duty and ABSD.

Supply is the second pillar. Only 11 new luxury projects have been launched for sale since 2024, including names such as Newport Residences, River Green, 32 Gilstead, Skywaters Residences and UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard. That scarcity concentrates buying into a small pool of assets and supports price resilience at the top. Our reviews of two of the strongest performers, River Green in District 9 and Newport Residences at the CBD fringe, unpack the pricing and product on offer.

How GFA harmonisation reframes luxury value

One quiet but important change shapes how buyers should read these prices. Under the harmonised floor-area rules now enforced across URA, SLA, BCA and SCDF, floor areas are measured to the middle of the wall, all strata areas count as gross floor area, and voids such as aircon ledges, planter boxes and high-ceiling spaces are excluded from strata and saleable area. In practice, a trophy apartment today shows a smaller but more efficient saleable area than an equivalent unit marketed before harmonisation.

For a $10 million-plus buyer this cuts both ways. The headline price psf may look higher because it is now spread over genuinely liveable space rather than voids, so like-for-like comparisons against older luxury stock must be adjusted. The upside is that buyers are paying for real usable area. If you are evaluating a showflat at this level, our note on the practical mechanics is worth a read before you commit large capital.

The Good Class Bungalow whipsaw

The landed trophy segment tells a different and more volatile story. The average Good Class Bungalow land rate fell to about $1,803 psf in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest quarterly average since the second quarter of 2022. Only four GCB transactions were recorded that quarter, down from nine in the fourth quarter of 2025, underlining how thin and illiquid this market is. Then, in the second quarter, the average land rate rebounded to about $2,341 psf, the highest quarterly average since the first quarter of 2025.

That swing is not a genuine market reversal so much as a small-numbers effect. When only a handful of bungalows transact in a quarter, one or two premium plots can drag the average sharply in either direction. The longer arc is what matters: GCB land values have risen from roughly $1,420 psf in 2019 to about $2,120 psf in 2025, so even the first-quarter dip represented a softening, not a crash.

Structurally, the GCB segment is defined by scarcity. There are roughly 2,800 bungalows across 39 gazetted GCB Areas, plots cannot be subdivided below the 1,400 sqm minimum, and no new GCB areas have been added in decades. Only Singapore Citizens may buy one. Permanent residents can apply only through the Land Dealings Approval Unit, and such approvals have become increasingly rare.

Opportunities and risks for eligible buyers

For the narrow pool able to play at this level, the split market creates genuine considerations on both sides.

• Opportunity, condos: tight new supply and a deepening local buyer base support price resilience in the CCR, and harmonised floor areas mean you are buying efficient space.
• Opportunity, GCB sequencing: a citizen's first residential property attracts zero ABSD, so a GCB purchased as a first property is structurally efficient. Buying it as a second property would add 20% ABSD, which on a $30 million bungalow is roughly $6 million.
• Risk, illiquidity: with only a few GCB deals a quarter, exit timing is unpredictable and quarterly averages are noisy. This is a hold-for-decades asset, not a trade.
• Risk, carrying costs: Buyer's Stamp Duty alone runs into the millions on a GCB, reaching the top marginal rate on the portion above $1.5 million, on top of significant annual maintenance. Model total acquisition and holding costs carefully using our stamp duty calculator.
• Risk, concentration: a single asset at this price can dominate a household balance sheet. Compare the trade-offs against liquid alternatives in our piece on property versus REITs versus stocks.

Before committing to any purchase at this scale, confirm the current duty rates directly at IRAS on ABSD and IRAS on BSD, and check financing limits at MAS loan-to-value rules.

The 2026 split at the top of the market rewards buyers who understand the difference between a genuine trend and statistical noise. Trophy condos are being carried by durable local demand and scarce supply, while GCB averages will keep bouncing on tiny transaction counts. If you are weighing a purchase at this level, or simply want to understand how these dynamics affect your own portfolio, the team at PropertyNet.SG can walk you through the numbers with an independent, non-salesy lens. Reach out for a confidential, personalised discussion before you make a decision of this scale.