Key Takeaways
- URA's final Q2 2026 data shows private home prices rose 0.5%, bringing the first-half 2026 gain to 1.4%.
- RCR non-landed prices fell 1.2% in Q2 2026 while CCR non-landed prices rose 1.8%, so the segment split matters more than the headline.
- The flash estimate can be revised: Q1 2026 went from a 0.3% flash reading to a 0.9% final figure, while Q2 2026 held at 0.5%.
- On a $1,600,000 condo, a 1.2% price move is worth $19,200, plus another $960 in Buyer's Stamp Duty.
- Based on URA data to Q2 2026, the Q3 flash will cover transactions from 1 July to mid-September 2026 only.
Expert takeaway: The URA Q3 2026 flash estimate matters less for its headline number than for its segment split. Watch whether RCR non-landed prices fall for a second quarter in a row. That tells you more about negotiating power than any island-wide average.
URA's flash estimate for Q3 2026 is expected on Thursday, 1 October 2026, following URA's usual practice of publishing at the start of each new quarter. Private buyers and sellers will look at the headline first. The more useful signals are further down the release. Q2 2026 ended with a modest headline gain but a clear split between regions, so this preview sets out the four numbers worth checking and what each one could mean for your next move. Source: URA Q2 2026 flash estimate and full real estate statistics.
Where the Private Market Stands Before the URA Q3 2026 Flash Estimate
URA's full Q2 2026 statistics set the baseline. The overall private residential price index increased by 0.5% in 2nd Quarter 2026, lower than the 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. This brought the cumulative increase for the first half of 2026 to 1.4%, below the 1.8% gain in the first half of 2025. You can read the full figures in URA's Q2 2026 real estate statistics release.
| URA price index (Q2 2026 final) | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall private residential | +0.9% | +0.5% |
| Landed | -0.4% | +2.5% |
| Non-landed (all) | +1.3% | -0.1% |
| Non-landed CCR | +0.6% | +1.8% |
| Non-landed RCR | +0.8% | -1.2% |
| Non-landed OCR | +2.2% | -0.1% |
Activity also shifted towards the secondary market. There were 3,813 resale transactions in 2nd Quarter 2026, compared with the 3,225 units transacted in the previous quarter. Resale transactions accounted for 62.0% of all sale transactions. On the primary side, developers sold 2,141 private residential units (excluding ECs) in 2nd Quarter 2026, compared with the 2,013 units sold in the previous quarter. We looked at what the RCR slide means for mid-market buyers in our analysis of RCR condo prices and the resale share.
Supply is the other part of the picture. URA said 4,745 private residential units will be launched under the Confirmed List for the second half of 2026, bringing the full-year Confirmed List supply to 9,320 units, over 50% higher than the annual average over the past 10 years. As at the end of 2nd Quarter 2026, there were 42,472 units (including ECs) in the supply pipeline with planning approval, of which 15,810 units remained unsold.
The 4 Numbers to Watch in the URA Q3 2026 Flash Estimate
1. The headline price index: a third positive quarter?
Quarterly gains in 2026 have been small: +0.9% in Q1 and +0.5% in Q2. Another positive reading would stretch the run of small increases. A flat or negative reading would be the first headline decline of 2026. Keep the scale in mind, though. Moves under 1% sit within the range that URA has revised between flash and final figures this year (see the revision table below), so do not read too much into a small change in either direction.
2. RCR non-landed prices: one dip or the start of a trend?
This is the most useful number for mid-market condo buyers. RCR non-landed prices fell 1.2% in Q2 after rising 0.8% in Q1. A second straight decline would suggest that city-fringe resale buyers have real room to negotiate, especially with resale already making up 62.0% of transactions. A rebound would suggest the Q2 dip was a one-off, possibly shaped by which projects happened to transact that quarter. Vacancy is worth checking alongside it. Vacancy rates of completed private residential properties as at the end of 2nd Quarter 2026 in CCR, RCR and OCR were 8.3%, 6.1% and 5.6% respectively.
3. The landed index: is Q2's 2.5% jump repeatable?
Landed prices swung from -0.4% in Q1 to +2.5% in Q2. Landed transactions are relatively few, so a small number of large deals can move the sub-index sharply. If the Q3 flash shows another strong landed gain, landed sellers have evidence for firmer pricing. If it reverses, the Q2 jump was more likely noise than a new trend.
4. Flash transaction volume: how quiet was the quarter?
URA includes a volume footnote in each flash release. For Q2, sale transaction volume (up to mid-June) totalled 5,420 in 2nd Quarter 2026, compared to 5,413 in 1st Quarter 2026. Q3 covers the traditionally slower seventh lunar month, and new launch activity was thin in August, as our August 2026 new home sales report covered. If prices hold up on clearly lower volume, that points to resilience. If prices fall on low volume, the signal is weaker, because a handful of deals can move a thin sample.
Flash vs Final: How Far URA Revised Its 2026 Estimates
The flash figure is an early read, not the final answer. URA explains that the Q2 flash was compiled based on transaction prices submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers from 1 Apr 2026 up till mid-June 2026. The agency also warns that past data have shown that the flash estimates may differ from actual changes. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution. The 2026 track record shows why that warning is there:
| Index | Q1 2026 flash | Q1 2026 final | Q2 2026 flash | Q2 2026 final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.3% | +0.9% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
| Non-landed CCR | +0.4% | +0.6% | +2.0% | +1.8% |
| Non-landed RCR | +0.9% | +0.8% | -1.4% | -1.2% |
| Non-landed OCR | +1.3% | +2.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Landed | -1.8% | -0.4% | +2.6% | +2.5% |
The Q1 revisions were large. The headline moved by 0.6 percentage points and the OCR by 0.9 points. The Q2 revisions stayed within 0.2 points. The practical lesson is that the direction of a flash reading is usually more reliable than its exact size, especially for readings under 1%. Going by the 24 April and 24 July release dates earlier this year, the full Q3 statistics should follow about three weeks after the flash. You can follow each release on our research and market data hub, or check individual transactions on URA REALIS.
What a 1.2% Move Means on a $1.6M Condo
Index moves are easier to judge in dollars. Say a buyer is looking at a $1,600,000 RCR resale condo, and the price has fallen by the same 1.2% that the RCR non-landed index recorded in Q2. The price drops by $19,200 to $1,580,800. Buyer's Stamp Duty also falls, because BSD is charged on the price paid, band by band, under the IRAS residential BSD rates:
| BSD band | Rate | At $1,600,000 | At $1,580,800 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First $180,000 | 1% | $1,800 | $1,800 |
| Next $180,000 | 2% | $3,600 | $3,600 |
| Next $640,000 | 3% | $19,200 | $19,200 |
| Next $500,000 | 4% | $20,000 | $20,000 |
| Remainder above $1.5M | 5% | $5,000 (on $100,000) | $4,040 (on $80,800) |
| Total BSD | $49,600 | $48,640 |
A 1.2% price move therefore saves the buyer $19,200 on the price plus $960 in BSD, or $20,160 in total. For a seller, the same move is a $19,200 cut in gross proceeds. Flash revisions have a dollar value too. The 0.6-point gap between the Q1 2026 flash and final headline equals $9,600 on the same $1,600,000 home. So nobody should reprice a listing or drop an offer because of the flash figure alone. For a fuller breakdown of how BSD and ABSD apply to your profile, see our guide to stamp duty in Singapore.
One more caution applies when turning index moves into psf comparisons. New launches are now mostly measured under the harmonised floor-area rules, which exclude aircon ledges and other voids from saleable area. Resale projects approved before 1 June 2023 keep the old measurement. Always check which convention a project uses before comparing its psf against another. For an RCR project that has sold out and is heading into its resale phase, our review of The Continuum is a useful reference point. Note that it quotes floor areas under the old, pre-harmonisation rules.
Opportunities and Risks for Private Buyers and Sellers
Opportunities:
- RCR resale buyers may have more room to negotiate if the flash shows a second RCR decline, with resale already at 62.0% of Q2 transactions.
- CCR sellers can point to Q2's 1.8% non-landed gain as evidence, provided Q3 confirms it.
- Buyers planning for 2027 will have more choice, with 9,320 Confirmed List units in the 2026 GLS programme feeding future launches.
Risks:
- Revision risk: as Q1 2026 showed, a flash reading can move by 0.6 points or more by the final release.
- Thin-volume distortion: a quieter quarter can make segment indices, especially landed, swing on a few transactions.
- Macro uncertainty: URA warned in July 2026 that the macroeconomic outlook remains highly uncertain. Households are advised to exercise prudence when purchasing property and taking out mortgage loans.
- Supply overhang: 15,810 unsold units with planning approval, plus new GLS supply, limit how far developers can push prices in the city fringe and suburbs.
Run your own numbers: try the stamp duty calculator to work out your BSD and ABSD, and CheckMyValue to estimate what your home could sell for (free, no sign-up).
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New Launch Reviews & ScoresWhatsApp: Get a Second OpinionFrequently Asked Questions
When is the URA Q3 2026 flash estimate released?
It is expected on Thursday, 1 October 2026, in line with URA's practice of publishing flash estimates at the start of each new quarter. It will cover transactions from 1 July to around mid-September 2026. The full Q3 statistics should follow later in October.
How accurate is the URA flash estimate?
The direction is usually right, but the size can change. The Q2 2026 headline was 0.5% in both the flash and the final release. The Q1 2026 headline was revised from 0.3% to 0.9%. URA itself advises caution when reading flash figures.
Should I wait for the flash estimate before buying a condo?
It is useful context but rarely a reason to delay on its own. On a $1,600,000 condo, a 1.2% price move is worth $19,200, plus $960 in Buyer's Stamp Duty. That is meaningful, but it is often smaller than the price gap you can negotiate on a specific unit.
Why did RCR prices fall while CCR prices rose in Q2 2026?
URA data shows RCR non-landed prices fell 1.2% and CCR non-landed prices rose 1.8% in Q2 2026. URA does not give reasons in its release. Changes in which projects transact in a given quarter can shift segment indices, which is why the Q3 reading will help show whether the split is lasting.
The Q3 flash is one data point, not a verdict. Before you price a listing or make an offer on a specific private property, check how your unit, project and segment have actually performed. Measurement conventions and your own financing position will change the answer. If you would like an independent read on what the 1 October numbers mean for your own purchase or sale, reach out to PropertyNet.SG for personalised, no-obligation advice.
Go deeper
Singapore New Launch Condo Reviews 2026 - every major project scored on our 100-point Insider Benchmark
Step-by-Step Guide to Buying a New Launch Condo - from showflat to keys, what to expect and what to negotiate
How to Upgrade From HDB to Condo Without Paying ABSD - the timing playbook for MOP owners