Key Takeaways
- Grand Dunman is expected to reach TOP in 2026, adding 1,008 leasehold units to District 15 near Dakota MRT, making it one of the year's largest completions.
- URA reported subsale transactions fell to 175 units in 1Q 2026, the fewest in a quarter since 1Q 2021, even as completions arrive.
- Only 911 private homes (excluding ECs) completed in 1Q 2026, with private completions falling to roughly 7,034 units between 1Q 2025 and 1Q 2026.
- URA flagged around 55,800 private homes including ECs expected over the coming years, so today's scarcity is temporary rather than structural.
- Buyers chasing newly completed stock face thin subsale choice and firm prices, making patience and unit-level due diligence more important than ever.
Expert takeaway: A wave of large condo completions is arriving in 2026, led by Grand Dunman, Pinetree Hill and The Lakegarden Residences, yet subsale supply has paradoxically dried to multi-year lows, leaving buyers with newer stock but unusually thin choice and firm pricing.
Singapore's condo TOP wave 2026 is one of the more interesting paradoxes in the current market. On one hand, several marquee projects launched in 2023 are now handing over keys, injecting fresh, never-lived-in units into established districts. On the other hand, the resale and subsale channels that usually recycle these units have thinned dramatically. For buyers and owners trying to read the market, understanding why completions and available supply are moving in opposite directions matters more than any single headline price.
What the URA and HDB Data Actually Show
The official numbers frame the story clearly. URA data shows the completion pipeline thinned out heading into 2026 before the larger projects arrived. URA caveats and statistics indicate that private home completions fell sharply in the run-up to this year, which is precisely why fewer resale and subsale units have been hitting the market.
According to URA-based figures, only a handful of large projects completed in early 2026, and the supply of fresh resale stock contracted as a result. MAS loan rules and prevailing financing conditions have not loosened, so the demand that does exist is being funnelled towards new launches rather than the subsale channel.
| Metric (URA, 1Q 2026) | Figure | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Subsale transactions | 175 units (down 23.9% q-o-q) | Among the lowest quarterly levels since 1Q 2021 |
| Private completions (1Q 2026, ex-EC) | 911 units | Thin handover slows fresh resale supply |
| Completions, 1Q 2025 to 1Q 2026 | ~7,034 units | A multi-year low in new private supply |
| Unsold stock | 16,219 units (down 7.5% q-o-q) | Inventory tightening, supporting prices |
| Future pipeline (incl. EC) | ~55,800 units | Supply is coming, just not all at once |
The signal is consistent. Fewer completions in 2025 meant fewer units flowing into the resale and subsale markets, which compressed transaction volumes. URA also pointed to roughly 55,800 private homes including executive condominiums expected to be completed in the coming years, a reminder that scarcity today is a timing phenomenon, not a permanent state.
The Three Projects Leading the 2026 Completion Wave
Three developments anchor the conversation, each in a different region and each telling a slightly different story about where Singapore's private market is heading.
Grand Dunman: Scale in District 15
Grand Dunman is the headline act. The 99-year leasehold development on Dunman Road in District 15 carries 1,008 units across seven blocks, developed by a SingHaiyi Group and CSC Land Group joint venture, with a target TOP in 2026. Sitting roughly 200 metres from Dakota MRT on the Circle Line, it is one of the largest single completions of the year and will materially shift the rental and resale picture in the Katong and Mountbatten corridor. A project of this size completing at once means hundreds of units potentially seeking tenants or buyers in a concentrated window.
Pinetree Hill: Exclusivity in Mount Sinai
Pinetree Hill, a 520-unit UOL and Singapore Land development at Pine Grove near Ulu Pandan Road, sits in a quieter, lower-density enclave. Its market position is the inverse of Grand Dunman: fewer units, a more exclusive setting, and limited competing supply in the immediate Mount Sinai area. For buyers, that scarcity within the micro-market can support pricing resilience, though it also means thinner transaction data to benchmark against.
The Lakegarden Residences: A Bet on Jurong Lake District
The Lakegarden Residences, a 306-unit Wing Tai development along Yuan Ching Road in District 22, is the regional growth story. Fronting Jurong Lake Gardens and positioned within the future Jurong Lake District, Singapore's planned second CBD, its appeal rests on long-term transformation rather than current amenity density. Its completion adds boutique-scale supply to a district where rental demand is expected to build as commercial activity matures.
Why Subsale Supply Has Dried Up Just as Completions Arrive
The intuitive expectation is that completions create subsale and resale stock. So why has subsale supply fallen to its thinnest in years? Three forces are at work.
- The 2025 completion drought: With relatively few projects reaching TOP in 2025, there were simply fewer recently completed units available to be flipped or resold, starving the subsale pipeline.
- Buyers pivoting to new launches: A heavy slate of new launches in attractive locations gave buyers fresh options with longer tenures, drawing demand away from subsale and resale units.
- Sellers holding firm: URA-based commentary notes that while volumes softened, sellers stayed firm on price, supported by limited supply. Owners with holding power have little incentive to discount into a thin market.
The result is a market where transaction volumes look quiet, but underlying prices remain supported. That divergence between subdued volumes and firm prices is the defining feature of mid-2026. If you are weighing an upgrade, our guide on reading market signals pairs naturally with this dynamic, and the new launch buying guide explains why so much demand has shifted to the primary market.
Opportunities and Risks for Buyers and Owners
An independent read requires holding both sides of the ledger at once.
The Opportunities
- Newly completed quality: Buyers entering Grand Dunman, Pinetree Hill or The Lakegarden via subsale or early resale get brand-new condition without progressive payment timelines, since completed units follow the normal 10-week completion process.
- Pricing transparency on TOP: Once a project completes, actual units, views and finishes can be inspected rather than bought off a showflat, reducing the guesswork covered in our piece on launch preview mistakes.
- Rental positioning: Owners completing near MRT, like Grand Dunman at Dakota, are better placed as rental supply normalises. Understanding your cash requirements upfront is essential before committing.
The Risks
- Concentrated rental competition: When a 1,008-unit project hands over at once, dozens of similar units may chase tenants in the same months, pressuring rents in that micro-market.
- Thin comparables: Low subsale and resale volumes mean fewer recent transactions to benchmark fair value, raising the risk of overpaying.
- Future supply: With around 55,800 private units in the pipeline, today's scarcity will ease. Buyers stretching their budget on the assumption that supply stays tight should reconsider, and review how TDSR and LTV limits shape their real borrowing capacity.
- Stamp duty costs: Multiple-property buyers should model stamp duty including ABSD carefully. Refer to IRAS ABSD and IRAS BSD for current rates.
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When is Grand Dunman expected to reach TOP?
Developer and listing information point to Grand Dunman reaching Temporary Occupation Permit in 2026, with some sources citing Q3 2026, though the official project documentation has at times indicated later dates. Completion timelines can shift, so confirm directly via URA records or the developer before making decisions tied to a specific handover quarter.
Why is subsale supply so low if condos are completing?
URA data shows private completions fell sharply in 2025, so there were fewer recently completed units to feed the subsale and resale channels. At the same time, a strong slate of new launches drew buyers towards the primary market, and many sellers held firm on price, all of which kept subsale volumes near multi-year lows in early 2026.
Does a completed condo still use progressive payments?
No. Progressive payment schemes apply only to uncompleted new launches still under construction. Once a project obtains TOP, subsale and resale purchases follow the normal completion process, typically around a 10-week timeline, similar to any completed property transaction.
Will the 2026 completion wave push prices down?
Not necessarily in the short term. URA-based figures show prices stayed firm even as volumes softened, supported by limited supply and resilient demand. Over the longer horizon, the roughly 55,800 units in the pipeline mean buyers should not assume scarcity is permanent, and should evaluate each unit on its own merits.
Is The Lakegarden Residences a good rental bet?
Its appeal hinges on the Jurong Lake District's transformation into Singapore's planned second CBD, which is a multi-year process. Rental demand is expected to build as commercial activity and transport infrastructure mature, but investors should weigh that long-term thesis against current amenity density and nearer-term rental competition.
The 2026 completion wave rewards buyers who look past the headlines and into the specifics: which block, which view, which tenancy window, and how a project's size shapes its rental dynamics. With subsale supply this thin and prices this firm, the margin for error narrows, and unit-level due diligence matters more than ever. If you are weighing a purchase, sale or upgrade tied to Grand Dunman, Pinetree Hill, The Lakegarden Residences or any 2026 completion, the team at PropertyNet.SG can walk you through the data, the financing maths and the trade-offs specific to your situation. Reach out for a confidential, no-obligation conversation, and let us help you make a clear-eyed decision grounded in the numbers rather than the noise.